From American Water Resources Association – In the past two decades, our understanding of the relations between atmospheric rivers, historical floods, and historical droughts on the West Coast, including in the Russian River Basin, has grown tremendously. Simultaneously—perhaps even consequently—the ability of modern weather forecasts to provide warning of the arrival of storms and the inflows they bring to Lake Mendocino has improved markedly. Forecasts are now reliable enough to provide five or more days’ notice of the possible arrival of the largest atmospheric rivers. Although landfall locations and intensities can remain uncertain at even shorter lead times, the big storms show themselves as likely somewhere in Northern California several days ahead. (more)